Mamdani Won the Broad Middle 60 Percent
In the wake of Zohran Mamdani’s win over Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic NYC primary election, an annoying analysis emerged that diminished the win as a product of rich college educated trust fund brats against the working class.
The data told a much different story. Mamdani won the broad middle 60 percent and Cuomo was much more the choice of the rich elites. Mamdani’s detractors used partial data to distort the reality.
This is the full income chart, originally shared by Owen Winter. Cuomo won the very poor and the very rich. Mamdani won the broad working middle class. Mamdani’s support surged at around $25k, flipped Cuomo at just over $50k and then fell below Cuomo at $150k.
For context:
NYC Min Wage (Annual): $34k
National Median Income: $42k
NYC Adjusted Median Income: $55k
NYC Nominal Median Income: $69k
National Top 10% Income Threshold: $150k
NYC Adjusted Top 10 % Income Threshold: $180k
Mamdani basically topped Cuomo from $34k to $150k (crossing at the exact national top 10% threshold). This already looks to be a much different story, that Mamdani’s support came from the rich, than the original bad take detractors alleged.
As for those college educated NYCers, their median income was between $36k and $74k. This puts the median college educated NYCer right around the lower middle end of the income spectrum. They are mostly behind the nominal NYC median income of $69k. As we can see from the vote chart, this income cohort had some of the highest support for Mamdani.
The whole idea that just having a college degree equates to super rich is laughable. This is especially the case in a city like NYC where the job market is way more biased towards college-oriented work rather than agriculture or manufacturing. Even retail work in NYC sometimes requires a college degree.
There is another important context for NYC incomes to point out. The Tax Foundation found that urban-metro areas have a relative premium in costs compared to the rest of country. This means that the nominal numbers distort the impression of real living standards in NYC relative to the country as a whole. Although NYCers might appear like they have higher incomes relative to national averages, their higher costs diminish the relative purchasing power of those incomes. Simply, the same dollar goes further in Kansas than it does NYC.
So the adjusted figures were calculated by discounting NYC figures by 20% or increasing national figures by 20% to better reveal how incomes don't go as far in NYC relative to the rest of the country.
It is also worth noting that most colleges in the tri-state area are, obviously, not Ivies. Let's say the nearby Ivies and sub-Ivies total to about 20. That's 4% of total colleges in the tri-state area. Even lower if we include colleges across the country given many faraway transplants in NYC.
NJ: 169 ( New Jersey Almanac)
NY: 300 (CollegeVine)
CT: 36-43 (AdvanceCT-GoodwinUni.)
It seems stupid to have to say it out loud but most college educated people are not Yale or Columbia brats but Rutgers or SUNY working middle class. The idea that a Rutgers grad — who grew up in the working or middle class and, today, earns working or middle class income — is conflated with a trust fund brat is ridiculous.
Returning to the general income view, a Reddit user created a useful graph to categorize various classes. I added my urban-metro cost adjusted NYC figures on top of their original figures. Approximately, NYC adjusted income of $28k (original $23k) to $74k (original $62k) can be labeled working class. Middle class is from $74k to $120k (original $100k).
Now, let's add everything together.
I supplemented two additional NYC income sources both derived from US Census Bureau. StatisticalAtlas indicated $21k to $190k is about 60 percent of NYCers. SportofMoney indicated $25k to $150k is about 60 percent of NYCers. This overlays, approximately, on the Reddit graph and Winter’s original vote by income chart.
Mamdani won the broad middle 60 percent of NYCers. It appears more so the case that the $150k to $190k and over cohort of rich trust fund brats were against Mamdani and for Cuomo. There is no basis for claiming that Mamdani is the candidate of those rich elites with luxury beliefs. However, there is plenty of basis to claim Mamdani is the candidate of the common voter who works for a living.
Footnote: It shouldn’t have to be said because this is obvious but just in case… “Mamdani won the broad middle 60 percent of NYCers” does not mean he won 100 percent of those in that income cohort. It simply means he did better than Cuomo in that cohort which is the way in which Mamdani’s luxury accusers used the data.