How soaring crime changed immigration policy in Denmark and Sweden
Irish citizens are concerned with the unprecedented scale of immigration into Ireland and the consequences of it. Denmark and Sweden are similar countries to Ireland in this regard.
Denmark’s population increased by 12 percent from 5.3 million in 2000 to 5.9 million in 2023 – while Sweden’s grew from 8.9 million to 10.5 million (19 percent increase) in that period.
Ireland’s growth was far more dramatic: up 39 percent from 3.8 million to 5.3 million. However, Denmark and Sweden went through their mass migration episodes earlier than Ireland and thus Ireland can get a glimpse of potential consequences and changes through the experiences of those countries – specifically in relation to crime.
Immigration and Crime
From 2000 to 2023, Denmark increased immigrants of foreign origin by 158 percent. In parallel, Denmark experienced sharp increase in reported criminal offences according to Statistics Denmark, the official government statistic organization.
Overall crimes increased by 31 percent. Filtering more relevant categories, crimes of violence increased by 94 percent and sexual offenses increased by 248 percent.
Sweden increased immigrants of foreign origin by 86 percent. However, if the period is limited to 2000 to 2016 (peak migration year) it increased by 232 percent.
In parallel, Sweden experienced a similar sharp increase in reported crimes according to the Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention (Brottsförebyggande rådet, abbreviated Brå), the official government statistic organization for the judicial system.
There was a 24 percent increase in overall crimes. Filtering more relevant categories, there was a 51 percent increase in crimes against life and limb (violent) and a 178 percent increase in sexual offenses. In addition, Sweden received a drastic increase, of 359 percent, in rape.
Source: https://www.dst.dk/en/Statistik/emner/borgere/flytninger/ind-og-udvandring, https://www.scb.se/en/finding-statistics/statistics-by-subject-area/population/population-projections/population-projections/pong/tables-and-graphs/immigration-and-emigration-by-sex-and-country-of-birth-and-projection/
Source: https://www.dst.dk/en/Statistik/emner/sociale-forhold/kriminalitet/anmeldte-forbrydelser
Source: https://bra.se/statistik/kriminalstatistik/anmalda-brott.html
These measures point to a positive relationship between immigration and crime, however, further inspection is needed to establish more of a connection.
DENMARK
In Denmark, immigrants of foreign origin were guilty of overall crimes at 1.86 times the rate of native-born Danes in 2022. Immigrants from western countries had a multiple of 1.26 and immigrants from non-western countries had a multiple of 2.21 that of native-born Danes.
Now, let’s specify for the highlighted categories of crime above. Western immigrants were found guilty of crimes of violence at 0.89 times the rate of Danes while non-western immigrants were found guilty of crimes of violence at 3.13 times the rate of Danes.
Western immigrants were found guilty of sexual offenses at 0.85 times the rate of Danes while non-western immigrants were found guilty of sexual offenses at 2.61 times the rate of Danes.
In 2017, for example, non-western immigrants were found guilty of crimes of violence at 3.81 times the rate of Danes and guilty of sexual offenses at 2.92 times the rate of Danes.
Source: https://www.dst.dk/en/Statistik/emner/sociale-forhold/kriminalitet/anmeldte-forbrydelser, https://www.dst.dk/en/Statistik/emner/borgere/flytninger/ind-og-udvandring
Source: https://www.dst.dk/en/Statistik/emner/sociale-forhold/kriminalitet/anmeldte-forbrydelser, https://www.dst.dk/en/Statistik/emner/borgere/flytninger/ind-og-udvandring
Next, separating Danes from western immigrants, descendants of western immigrants, non-western immigrants, and descendants of non-western immigrants reveals further insight.
In 2022, these groups were found guilty of overall crimes at these multiples of the native Dane rate: western immigrants at 1.34, western descendants at 0.67, non-western immigrants at 1.99, and non-western descendants at 2.69.
This indicates that those born in Denmark from non-western immigrant parents are the most disproportionately represented in overall crimes.
Source: https://www.dst.dk/en/Statistik/emner/sociale-forhold/kriminalitet/anmeldte-forbrydelser, https://www.dst.dk/en/Statistik/emner/borgere/flytninger/ind-og-udvandring
The contrast between the multiple decreasing from western immigrants to western descendants and the multiple increasing from non-western immigrants to non-western descendants could be interpreted to mean that westerners have an easier time assimilating than non-westerners.
This could be caused by the unique tendency of non-westerners to ghettoize within neighborhoods with each other thus creating barriers to assimilation both culturally and economically.
Assuming factors that produced the disproportionate crime rates of immigrants and descendants over the past two decades can’t be changed, Denmark is faced with a simple policy choice. If Denmark continues the status quo on immigration, it will likely result in more crime.
SWEDEN
In Sweden, the data regarding immigrants and crime is much harder to come by. The analogous data that was used in the Danish example does not appear to be recorded regularly or made externally accessible. However, in 2021, the Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention published a special report that specifically analyzed domestic and foreign backgrounds of suspects of crimes from 2015 to 2018.
In Sweden, those foreign-born were 2.5 times the rate of native-born Swedes to be suspects of crime. Immigrants from western countries had an average multiple of 1.59 and immigrants from non-western countries had an average multiple of 3.39 times that of native-born Swedes.
Foreign-born were found to be suspects of crimes against life health (violence) at 3.3 times the rate of native Swedes. Foreign-born were found to be suspects of crimes of sexual offences at 2.9 times the rate of native Swedes.
The Swedish report also recorded a distinct category for those who were born in Sweden but had two foreign-born parents.This category of descendants of foreign-born parents followed the same trend found in Denmark.
Descendants of foreign-born parents were suspects of crime at 3.2 times the rate of native Swedes. Descendants of foreign-born parents were found to be suspects of crimes against life health (violence) at 3.9 times the rate of native Swedes. Descendants of foreign-born parents were found to be suspects of crimes of sexual offences at 2.9 times the rate of native Swedes.
They also had very high multiples in other categories such as a multiple 4.5 in theft and misappropriation offences, 4.7 in crimes against the narcotics penal code, and 5.4 in crimes of fraud.
These two independent countries both converged on similar results from similar events. They both experienced recent waves of mass migration, especially from non-western countries. They both saw crime statistics concerningly increase. They both found that non-western immigrants and descendants of non-western immigrants were involved in criminality at disproportionately high rates compared to their relative population to the native population.
They both failed at properly assimilating immigrants and their descendants over two decades. In my opinion, it is unlikely that a viable policy is available besides cutting immigration.
IRELAND COMPARED
As noted above, Denmark and Sweden increased their immigrants of foreign origin by 158 percent and 86 percent, respectively, from 2000 to 2023. Ireland increased its immigrants of foreign origin by 303 percent in the same period.
Ireland outdid these countries by multiples of 2 and 3.5. Denmark and Sweden experienced mass migration peaks earlier than Ireland and thus it could be argued that lessons can be learned.
Since Ireland started its mass migration trend later, the consequences of mass migration will lag as well. Ireland’s Central Statistics Office (CSO), the official government statistic organization, records comparable data on immigration and crime.
It’s important to highlight the difference between Ireland’s high immigration in the mid-2000s and its more recent high immigration. In 2004, a group of eastern European countries joined the European Union (EU). This enabled freer movement of people from those countries across the EU. The Irish housing bubble stimulated demand for construction labour and this brought in immigrants from Poland, mainly. When the housing bubble popped that type of immigration reduced substantially. That immigration was brief but also from a culturally analogous country. Poland and Ireland had similar levels of Catholic religiosity and early economic development levels.
Some of the subsequent data is limited by the CSO’s lack of data earlier than 2006 in some cases. Ireland’s more recent high immigration is unprecedentedly composed of mostly immigrants from outside the EU and United Kingdom (UK).
In 2023, 72 percent of new immigrants per year to Ireland were from non-EU and Non-UK countries while in 2006 they were 18 percent, a quadrupling.
Ireland increased the number of new immigrants per year of non-EU and non-UK origin by 631 percent from 2000 to 2023. This new trend started in 2017 and sky-rocketed in 2022, attributed to those claiming refuge from the Ukraine War.
The number of total immigrants of non-EU and non-UK origin in Ireland increased by 96 percent between 2006 and 2022. Since 2017, the average annual growth rate of total immigrants of non-EU and non-UK origin was 13 percent and in 2022 it was 22 percent.
The point of highlighting the difference between Ireland’s mid-2000 and current immigrants is that it reveals that this is the first time Ireland is dealing with this scale of immigrants from more distant cultures. Ukrainians are distant enough and while surely, they compose a large portion of these new immigrants, they have created an opening for other nationalities to immigrate too.
Ireland received 13,651 asylum seekers in 2022 which was up from 415 percent compared to 2021. The top three countries of origin, in order, were Georgia, Nigeria, and Somalia. In 2023, Ireland received 13,277 asylum seekers with origin countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Afghanistan rising in proportion.
There are reports of 60 percent of those asylum seekers coming in through Dublin Airport having no ID. Thus, it is largely impossible to verify an individual migrant’s personal qualifications and even their true country of origin. While more investigation needs to be done, this also points to questions regarding the authenticity of those claiming Ukrainian origin.
In comparison, Ireland is only now just starting to deal with what Denmark and Sweden went through, with episodes of mass migration originating from culturally distant countries, in 2006 to 2016. Denmark and Sweden received many immigrants from Syria, Iraq, Somalia, Turkey, Iran, and similarly culturally distant countries.
Given that the Irish state can’t be relied on to sufficiently verify immigrants’ paperwork and is so incompetent that it is housing them in tents on the street, it would be fair to assume that the Irish state is totally ill-equipped to handle the any likely crime surge that will come down the road based on Denmark’s and Sweden’s past trends.
According to the CSO, some crimes have already started to increase. Since Covid lockdowns were anomaly that reduced all human interactions, an appropriate start year should be 2019. From 2019 to 2023, Ireland saw increases of 7 percent in rape, 9 percent in theft, 11 percent in robbery, extortion and hijacking offences, 12 percent in assault causing harm, poisoning, 16 percent in human trafficking, 17 percent in kidnapping, 27 percent in theft from shop, 61 percent in theft/taking of vehicle and related offences, and 96 percent in importation of drugs.
Source:
https://data.cso.ie/
Ireland has already experienced a 43 percent increase in violent crimes and a 113 percent increase in sexual offenses since 2003 (earliest year of recorded data).
Yet there is no discussion permitted as to whether it is following the path already laid down by Denmark and Sweden – and if the status quo continues there is no reason to doubt Ireland hasn’t even seen peak immigration yet.
Source:
https://data.cso.ie/
Presently, Ireland doesn’t record country of origin, descendant status, or other migration related details in regards to crime statistics.
The government began considering it in 2022 but has not yet implemented it. However, according to research by Irish Penal Reform Trust (IPRT) from the Maynooth University School of Law and Criminology in 2022, “15 percent of prisoners [in Ireland] come from a foreign national background.” When compared to 12 percent non-Irish share of the general population, foreign nationals are only slightly more represented in criminal activities than native Irish.
While it is very difficult to gain visibility on immigration related crime statistics in Ireland, the coming years will likely follow the Danish and Swedish trends no matter if the Irish government records data properly or not. Ireland is only just now starting to feel the effects of large scale mass migration from non-western and culturally distant immigrants.
BACKLASH AND CHANGE OF COURSE IN OTHER COUNTRIES
By the mid-2010s, mass migration became politicalized in both Denmark and Sweden. Its negative consequences fueled the ascendancy anti-immigration rhetoric. In Denmark, nominally right-wing parties leaning more into that type of rhetoric received more popularity. The Danish right implemented policies that limited immigration accessibility and focused on de-ghettoizing immigrant neighborhoods to crackdown on crime and enforce assimilation.
More interestingly, the Danish left was moving towards anti-immigration rhetoric as well.
In the 2011 election, the Social Democrats said “there is room for anyone that wants to come” and that Denmark must “attract foreigners.” In the 2015 election, the Social Democrats’ party programme said that “If you come to Denmark, you must work.” In 2019 election, the Social Democrats’ manifesto included statements such as: “Denmark must have control again”, “We will introduce a ceiling on how many new nonwestern foreigners can come to Denmark in one year”, or “We will change our asylum system and create a reception centre outside Europe.”
Thus, the nominally left-wing Social Democrat party outran the nominally right-wing parties by leaning further into an anti-immigration agenda. Its leader, Mette Frederiksen, said “For me, it is becoming increasingly clear that the price of unregulated globalisation, mass immigration and the free movement of labour is paid for by the lower classes.”
Denmark under Social Democrat leadership has doubled down on stricter immigration and de-ghettoizing. For instance, Denmark was the first European nation to deport Syrian refugees, it has sought to locate asylum seekers in a third-country like Rwanda, and has specifically targeted residents of non-western origin. In short, Denmark has embraced a “zero refugee” policy, stricter immigration, and an emphasis on enforced assimilation.
In Sweden, an anti-immigration backlash lagged Denmark. The Sweden Democrat Party’s slow rise in popularity through the 2010s and early 2020s was a clear example of anti-immigration ascendancy. In the 2022 election, the Sweden Democrats reached all-time-high popularity as it went from once a fringe party to the second most voted in party. The Sweden Democrats ran on agenda items like bringing asylum migration “close to zero”, restricting immigrant access to work permits, incentivizing deportations, making citizenship more difficult to attain, reducing social benefits to immigrants, and more.
The leader of the Sweden Democrats is Jimmie Åkesson. In his own words, here is what he said on the status quo: “We have a situation where people live in Sweden, as citizens of Sweden, but they still can’t speak Swedish. They have no connection whatsoever to Swedish society. They are only here to commit crimes. They bring down the reputation of Swedish citizenship and Swedish passports internationally. Sweden now needs to get away from all this … I don’t think there’s any other solution than to start looking at tearing up citizenships.”
The more mainstream Moderate Party ended up leading the Swedish government only after compromising with the Sweden Democrats to gain their support. The Moderate Party has suggested that it wants to reduce asylum migration to “the same levels as Denmark and Norway.” A Moderate Party MP, Louise Meijer, said she is “advocating an even stricter migration policy than the one [she] opposed [in the past].”
Crime was also a substantial factor in the prominence of the Sweden Democrats as many voters saw them as the most vocal critics of criminal chaos. This is why a specific targeting of Sweden’s out-of-control gangs, which are also disproportionately composed of foreign-born immigrants and descendants, was made an explicit in the compromise document, called the Tidö Agreement, between right-wing bloc led by the Moderate Party.
The official Swedish government website detailed its new migration policy: “Sweden’s migration policy is undergoing a paradigm shift. The Government is intensifying its efforts to reduce, in full compliance with Sweden’s international commitments, the number of migrants coming irregularly to Sweden. Labour immigration fraud and abuses must be stopped and the ‘shadow society’ combated. Sweden will continue to have dignified reception standards, and those who have no grounds for protection or other legal right to stay in Sweden must be expelled.”
The former government leader from the center-left Social Democrat Party, Magdalena Andersson, has even said “Sweden has failed to integrate the vast numbers of immigrants it has taken in over the past two decades, leading to parallel societies and gang violence…Integration has been too poor at the same time as we have had a large immigration. Society has been too weak, resources for the police and social services have been too weak.”
She went even further in her rebuttal to being perceived as weaker on immigration compared to the Moderate Party and Sweden Democrats: “The paradigm shift happened in 2015, and it was us who carried it out…The big rearrangement of migration policy was carried out by us Social Democrats after the refugee crisis of 2015, with a thoroughgoing tightening up of the policy.” While perhaps not as pronounced as the latter group’s anti-immigration politics, this would indicate an earlier and more broad-based acknowledgement of the failings of Sweden’s immigration policies.
Both Denmark and Sweden saw increased levels of anti-immigration sentiment in the mid 2010s. Denmark seemed to take more of the lead in early and stricter policies but, while Sweden appeared to be tepidly lagging behind, Sweden’s 2022 election suggested it may now be stricter than Denmark.
Swedish sociologist Göran Adamson summed up the rationale for the backlash: “[the] problem is that we have been dominated by an almost-religious idealisation of things that the elites in our country know very little about, namely foreign cultures.”
Another aspect on the popularity of these anti-immigrant trends is that the successful parties combined an anti-immigration agenda with left-leaning economic policies. This seems counterintuitive to conventional wisdom that suggests anti-immigration must be wed to free market economic doctrine. Also from a financial perspective, the notion that immigrants are net economic contributors to society is dubious.
The Danish government estimated “that in 2018 immigrants from non-Western countries and their descendants drained from public finances a net 31bn kroner ($4.9bn), some 1.4% of GDP.” While crime was a focus of this essay, these economic concerns are worthy of further discussion.
For whatever reason, the Irish establishment chooses to ignore the backlash and paradigm shifts in Denmark and Sweden. Rather, it is copying the loose immigration policies of those countries from over a decade ago.
If the criminal trends surge like they did in those countries, perhaps, Ireland will eventually have its own paradigm shift. However, there is no reason why Ireland has to learn the hard and stupid way by letting the predictable chaos unfold for the next dozen years. It can easily look across to its European neighbors and take a shortcut.
Originally published on 19/06/2024:
https://gript.ie/how-soaring-crime-changed-immigration-policy-in-denmark-and-sweden/